While it will no doubt aid the plight of the region’s cattle and sheep producers, this particular disease-stopping tool was not forged in a farming shed, but a computer lab.

Armidale computational scientist Paul Kwan was a leading brain in developing the Australian Animal Disease Model, which simulates the spread of disease within and between farms across Australia.

He said the tool would help decision-makers respond to outbreaks before they reach crisis-level. 

“We estimate how far or how big the area of impact is,” Dr Kwan said.

“The earlier the warning is being signalled and the earlier he impact of that potential outbreak is estimated, hopefully the lesser the impact will be.”

The model also provides a real time graphical visualisation of an outbreak waxing and waning, which acts as a predictive tool for policy makers.  

With the Hendra virus and foot-and-mouth disease still posing a potential threat to multiple facets of the agricultural industry in Australia, researchers believe the model will be provide additional layer of protection for producers.  

Dr Kwan said a common way to deal with an infection outbreak is to destroy livestock in order to prevent the spread.

He hopes to see his model lessen the need to cull and prevent unnecessary action, which could save producers from significant profit losses. 

“For livestock producers the worst thing is to see is their livestock being culled,” Dr Kwan said.

The model is based on an expansive database, taking into account the movements of livestock to predict the spread of disease.

“It is as accurate as possible to the movement of livestock – from one farm to another farm, from one farm to the sale yards and from the sale yards it fans out into all directions,” Dr Kwan said. 

“It’s good to see the research is not just in the university ivory tower, but will have a real impact.”

Dr Kwan estimates the tool will be used by Australian policy makers later this year.