When the Baird government unveiled the first high-resolution mapping of how global warming is expected to shift the climate for NSW, Victoria and the ACT by 2070, officials were quizzed why they weren't using "climate variability", a term favoured by federal Coalition counterparts, to describe the outlook.
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"This is the NSW government, we believe in climate change!" came the immediate response at the last month's media briefing.
So, it seems, does Victoria's new Labor premier Daniel Andrews. His minister for climate change – Lisa Neville – is expected to take a higher profile on the issue than her Liberal predecessor Ryan Smith. NewEnergy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio has also signalled a keen interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy - both areas largely stalled under the previous government.
Gone, too, is the Coalition preference of eschewing "climate change" in Victorian agencies, such as in 2011 when agriculture minister and now state Nationals leader, Peter Walsh, launched a Climate Challenges Centre at Melbourne University. The jointly funded research interests include how crops might adapt to rising carbon-dioxide levels in an "evolving climate".
At the federal level, meanwhile, Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce in October outlined his department's paper on competitiveness in the sector without a single reference to climate change in its 111-page report. "Australian farmers, even more so than their global competitors, must adapt to climate variability," was about the closest it got.
Such an aversion to the topic – and for some Coalition MPs, outright dismissal global warming is at all a threat – may leave the Abbott government even more out of step with the electorate and the governments of its two most populous states.
If climate change was a liability for Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2014 – witness how it dogged his visit to the United States and then dominated G20 coverage after President Barack Obama's "Save the Reef" speech – there are many reasons to think it will be an even bigger issue in 2015.
By the end of this year, almost 200 nations will gather in Paris to negotiate a global treaty aimed at keeping temperature increases to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial times (versus about a 1-degree increase so far). Each meeting in the run-up will scrutinise pledges, including Australia's, for cutting greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020.
Pope Francis will weigh in too, issuing the first-ever Vatican teachings to the world's 1.2 billion Catholics to act on climate change. He is also expected to bring together other religious leaders for a summit ahead of the Paris gathering.
At home, the government's centrepiece $2.55 billion pay-the-polluter Direct Action plan will finally be tested – just as power sector emissions start to climb in the wake of the carbon tax it replaced. Any rollback of the Renewable Energy Target – so far blocked in the Senate – will only add to the scheme's task.
Reminders Australia is vulnerable to climate change will also come in updates from the NSW government of its assessment of risks for south-eastern Australia to 2070, including for water availability and sea-level rise, and more data on Victoria. The release of CSIRO's Natural Resource Management report on climate risk – which the Abbott government is understood to be delaying – will add to concerns.
Polls suggest voter sentiment is starting to shift, such as the Lowy Institute's annual survey released mid-2014, which showed the first increase of climate concern in six years. Almost two-thirds of respondents said the federal government should be taking a leadership role in cutting emissions, with just 7 per cent saying it should do nothing.
Amanda McKenzie, chief executive of the Climate Council – which was scrapped by the Abbott government as its first act on taking office in September 2013 – said the mood will continue to move as people understand the link between extreme weather and climate, with recent heat a clear signal. "We've had two very extreme summers and this looks like it could be another."
In the next few weeks, 2014 will likely be declared the hottest year on record globally, beating 2005 and 2010. For Australia, it was the third-warmest behind 2013 and 2005, with only 2011 a below-average year this century.
El Ninos tend to result in relatively hot and dry years for most of Australia, and the current near-threshold conditions in the Pacific point to a tough couple of months ahead. This weekend's heatwave across south-eastern states will also likely elevate anxiety about bushfires.
Farmers concerned
Two farmers well understand the impacts and risks of climate change – and also the difficulty of convincing others in their industry.
Bill Yates, a farmer from Garah in northern NSW, serves as a "Climate Champion" as part of the federally funded Managing Climate Variability R&D program and is unhappy with the body's title.
"You're allowed to talk about climate change in terms of variability but change is change," the 65-year-old, third-generation farmer said.
His region has been hard hit by drought but it is the rising temperatures, particularly in spring, that is most concerning. Wheat and other crops are flowering earlier, reducing their output for harvest even when the rains do come, he says.
"The really smart farmers are sowing earlier because it's warming up," he said, adding though that wheat may be unviable in his area within 30 years.
The NSW government's survey found northern and western parts of the state – including areas such as Garah – could endure maximum temperatures above 35 degrees for one-third of the year by 2070 if global emissions remain on a high-growth path.
Mark Wootton, a farmer almost 1500 km to the south, last year took in 520 black steers from northern NSW for agistment on his property near the Grampians in western Victoria.
The animals arrived by truck emaciated and blind from pink eye in "a scene like Gallipoli", Wootton said.
Wootton's farms, though, are now also extremely dry as the normally well-watered regions become parched.
As with Yates, Wootton is also outspoken on climate change. He helped found and continues to chair The Climate Institute, one of the country's leading non-government agencies on the issue.
Wootton said the most ardent climate change sceptics in his industry tend to be "male, over-70 and cranky", and that younger farmers – particularly the agronomy students he hosts from the Marcus Oldham College near Geelong – need much less persuasion that the matter is serious.
And it's not just the physics of climate change that is a threat. Wootton said Chinese customers alert to the positive branding opportunities in Europe and elsewhere now enquire about the carbon neutrality of his merino and cattle farms. "Who the hell would have thought they'd come and ask those sorts of questions?" he said.
Key issue for government
Doubts the Abbott government was about to give climate change greater urgency were fanned last month when the PM appointed Bob Baldwin to be the new parliamentary secretary for the environment – replacing Senator Simon Birmingham.
The affable NSW MP told Fairfax Media he sticks by comments he made to a Chinese audience in 2010 that without climate change the dinosaurs would still be around.
"Since the very beginning of time there has been climate change," he said, adding he was "neither a climate sceptic nor a denier".
Baldwin said, though, that the planet should be given the benefit of the doubt and that he was "strongly committed to Direct Action".
"We accept the science and we're going to do something," he said. "We as individuals can make a difference, as we did under Clean Up Australia."
Whether such a response is enough, or whether the electorate will start demanding a lot more of Australian governments at all levels, will be a key issue to watch in 2015 and beyond.
